Chicago Fed National Activity Index · CFNAI
Definition
A weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity, scaled so that zero equals trend growth.
Why investors care
Its three-month moving average is a clean single-number read on whether the economy is running above or below trend.
What to watch
Watch the three-month average (CFNAI-MA3) — a reading below −0.7 has historically signaled recession.